Myanmar’s generals found themselves in a tricky position last week over a crisis that has polarised the world – Russian military operations in Ukraine.
And they weren’t the only South East Asian country to have their mettle tested over this crisis.
Other Association of South East Asian Nations members also appeared divided on how to respond to an explosive issue far from their shores that overheated commentators claim could lead to World War III.
International disquiet was clear in the halls of power of the United Nations building last week.
The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly adopted a resolution on Wednesday that "demands" Russia "immediately" withdraw from Ukraine, in a powerful rebuke of Moscow's invasion by a vast majority of the world's nations. After more than two days of extraordinary debate in the assembly, which saw the Ukrainian ambassador accuse Russia of genocide, 141 out of 193 United Nations member states voted for the non-binding resolution.
Myanmar was one of the 141 who voted to demand Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
Yet only days before, the Myanmar junta was praising Russia for its invasion and Moscow’s drive to “protect their sovereignty”.
So why the opposing view?
This split can be explained by the fact that Myanmar is still represented at the UN by the ambassador of the pre-military coup administration, Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun.
"The people of Myanmar are facing similar suffering resulted from the inhumane acts, atrocities, crimes against humanity committed by the Myanmar military," Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun said Wednesday.
TWO-FACED MYANMAR RESPONSE
Ukraine has been polarising and Myanmar’s position has been ambiguous, as there are two elements speaking for Myanmar – the illegal junta, installed through a coup, and an outspoken UN envoy who in simple terms speaks for the National Unity Government (NUG), the civilian body that supports the interests of those who voted for the elected National League for Democracy-led players in the November 2020 election.
The Myanmar junta raised eyebrows as Russian tanks trundled over the border into Ukraine when the generals in Naypyidaw vocally offered support.
In recent interviews with VOA Burmese and RFA's Myanmar Service on February 25 and 26 respectively, General Zaw Min Tun, a spokesperson for Myanmar's Military Council, openly supported the action by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Firstly, I see it as an effort to consolidate Russian sovereignty,” junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told RFA’s Myanmar Service. “Secondly, it shows that Russia is a force to be reckoned with in the balance of power to ensure world peace.”
On 28 February, the Myanmar junta – just prior to the UN General Assembly vote - extended support to the Russian military operations against Ukraine. Myanmar military Major General Zaw Min Tun was quoted by Sputnik International as saying that he hoped Russia will be able to uproot "modern colonialism," pointing out that the US is moving closer to the Russian borders in order to undermine Russia's sovereignty. "...the situation around Ukraine is not a problem of the two countries. The President, the government and the people of Russia were obliged to respond to the emerging geopolitical situation in the world, where Ukraine was only one of the links."
Zaw Min Tun emphasized that the actions of the Russian leadership are aimed at protecting national interests and demonstrating the unity of the Russian people. "President Vladimir Putin, the Russian government and the people there have demonstrated to the world that they have a broader vision of world political problems and that Russia can and must protect its national interests and unity," the spokesperson said.
Zaw Min Tun recalled how Western countries had financed opposition forces in Myanmar and said that the current Ukraine crisis was caused by unwillingness on the part of the USA to provide Russia with security guarantees. "Today, Ukraine fully follows the policy and ideology of the bloc of Western countries. This situation resulted in Russia rightly putting forward its demands for its own security, but we saw that America did not respond to them and continued to act contrary to the fair solution of problems. We are seeing the consequences of this right now," the spokesperson said.
According to a reputable local news source, the Burmese military junta held an emergency meeting on the Ukraine-Russia crisis in the capital Naypyidaw on 26 February in order to discuss how the crisis in Ukraine might affect Myanmar.
Reportedly, the junta discussed the scenario in which Myanmar could be invaded by China just like the Ukraine has been subject to by its neighbour Russia, if and when Myanmar’s military is incapable of protecting Chinese interests in the country.
The Myanmar junta is reportedly of the opinion that increasing attacks on Chinese investments by resistance groups may lead to China taking matters into its own hand. And to avoid this, the junta decided to tighten security at the sites of China’s special interests in Myanmar, including along the oil and gas pipelines.
NUG RESPONSE
Countering the Myanmar junta’s stance, the NUG issued a statement 25 February stating: “The National Unity Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar condemns the unprovoked acts of war directed against Ukraine and its people. These acts are a flagrant violation of the United Nations (UN) Charter and international law.”
“The terrifying, escalating attacks on Ukraine – conducted from air, land and sea – have already claimed an unknown number of lives and driven tens of thousands of civilians from their homes. Myanmar calls on (Russia) to respect the territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty of Ukraine.”
“Myanmar stands in solidarity with the people of Ukraine.”
Myanmar’s NUG said that while last year’s military takeover was not a foreign invasion, similarities can be drawn between Russia’s actions and how the military imposed its will on the Southeast Asian nation of 54 million people, reports the RFA.
“The concept of bullying is similar,” NUG Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung told RFA.
“From an international point of view, they crossed the border and invaded a small country. It is more alarming and frightening for geographically related nations and for allies. We are watching to see how countries react to the shift in the balance of power.”
Meanwhile, the Myanmar public made their feelings known. On 28 February, people took to the streets in Yangon, Mandalay, Dawei, Kachin, and Sagaing to support the Ukrainian resistance against the Russian invasion, holding placards which read “Glory to Ukraine” and “Putin Must Fail”.
ASEAN RELUCTANCE
ASEAN appeared like it was caught on the back-foot, unclear how to respond to a crisis far from its shores.
On February 26, ASEAN issued a two-point statement on Russia's invasion of Ukraine:
“The ASEAN Foreign Ministers are deeply concerned over the evolving situation and armed hostilities in Ukraine. We call on all relevant parties to exercise maximum restraint and make utmost efforts to pursue dialogues through all channels, including diplomatic means to contain the situation, to de-escalate tensions, and to seek peaceful resolution in accordance with international law, the principles of the United Nations Charter and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia.”
It further states: “We believe that there is still room for a peaceful dialogue to prevent the situation from getting out of control. For peace, security, and harmonious co-existence to prevail, it is the responsibility of all parties to uphold the principles of mutual respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and equal rights of all nations.”
Only two ASEAN members were critical of Russia’s moves, Singapore and Indonesia.
Earlier, more than 36 hours after the assault invasion began on Ukraine on 24 February by Russian forces, Singapore and Indonesia outrightly condemned the invasion as a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, though the latter’s statement did not name Russia, according to the 25 February South China Morning Post (SCMP).
“The attack on Ukraine is unacceptable. Moreover, the attack puts the people’s lives in grave danger and threatens regional as well as global peace and stability,” the Indonesian foreign ministry said.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo meanwhile put out a tweet of his own, also not referring to Russia. “Stop the war. War brings misery to mankind and puts the whole world at risk,” he wrote.
Since Putin's annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014, the Singapore government has been keen on discussion about Ukraine.
In its statement on 24 February, the Singaporean foreign ministry said it was “gravely concerned” by Russia’s actions and that it “strongly condemns any unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country under any pretext”.
Also offering tough language was the defence minister Ng Eng Hen, who wrote on Facebook that it was “hard to reconcile this aggression after experiencing nearly 80 years of relative peace,” according to the SCMP.
Statements by the Philippines and Thailand focused on repatriating their respective nationals. Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia – autocrat-ruled nations in mainland Southeast Asia – said they would veto any attempt by other members of ASEAN to issue a strong joint statement on the war, writes the SCMP.
However, recently the Philippines has denounced what it considers as the “invasion of Ukraine,” voting to support a United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The Philippines statement of 28 February at the special session of UNGA on Ukraine-Russia crisis says: “The Philippines votes Yes to the UNGA resolution and expresses explicit condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine.”
Earlier, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the Director for the Institute for Security and International Studies, in a Thai Enquirer report, said: “ASEAN have no real qualm with Russia. ASEAN does not have stakes and interests in Ukrainian territorial integrity. If the country at issue is some other country in which ASEAN has direct stakes and interests, then the organisation might say something overtly. Overall, wading into the Ukraine crisis is outside ASEAN’s strategic purview. It brings more liability than benefit. – What ASEAN would be concerned about is if China were to use the Russian example as opportunism to behave more aggressively with territorial grabs.”
SINGAPORE’S TOUGH STANCE
Singapore is particularly harsh and most critical among the ASEAN members regarding the unfolding Russia-Ukraine war.
In a rare move for Singapore, the Republic will impose sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, including export controls on items that can be used as weapons to inflict harm or subjugate the Ukrainians, said Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan in his ministerial statement on the situation in Ukraine in Parliament, according to Singapore-based Today Newspaper of 28 February.
Reportedly, Singapore will also block certain Russian banks and financial transactions connected to Russia; specific measures are being worked out and details will be announced shortly; Singapore must expect that these measures will come at some cost and implications for businesses and citizens; Singapore has rarely acted to impose sanctions on other countries in the absence of binding decisions or directions by the United Nations Security Council, but it decided to do so given the unprecedented gravity of the Russian attack on Ukraine, said Dr Balakrishnan.
"However, unless we as a country stand up for principles that are the very foundation for the independence and sovereignty of smaller nations, our own right to exist and prosper as a nation may similarly be called into question one day,” he stressed.
He also called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “clear and gross” violation of international norms that sets a “completely unacceptable” precedent.
“This is an existential issue for us. Ukraine is much smaller than Russia, but it is much bigger than Singapore,” he said.
Dr Balakrishnan pointed out that a world order based on the principle that “might is right” or where “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must” would be profoundly inimical to the security and survival of small states.
"We cannot accept one country attacking another without justification, arguing that its independence was the result of 'historical errors and crazy decisions'. Such a rationale would go against the internationally recognised legitimacy and territorial integrity of many countries, including Singapore."
CHINA’S AWKWARDNESS
China appeared to walk the line between non-interference and condemnation.
Although China has abstained during the UNSC resolution denouncing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on 25 February, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi relayed a five-point Chinese position in his phone conversations with UK Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, and French Diplomatic Advisor to the President Emmanuel Bonne respectively.
The summarized first points released on 26 February, by Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, made clear the approach.
Point 1: “China maintains that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and protected and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter abided by in real earnest. This position of China is consistent and clear-cut, and applies equally to the Ukraine issue.”
Point 2: “China advocates common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. China believes that the security of one country should not come at the expense of the security of other countries, still less should regional security be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military blocs. The Cold War mentality should be discarded completely. The legitimate security concerns of all countries should be respected. Given NATO's five consecutive rounds of eastward expansion, Russia's legitimate security demands ought to be taken seriously and properly addressed.”
Point 3: “The top priority now is for all parties to exercise the necessary restraint to prevent the current situation in Ukraine from getting worse or even getting out of control.”
Point 4: “China supports and encourages all diplomatic efforts conducive to a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”
Point 5: “China believes that the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in resolving the Ukraine issue, and give priority to regional peace and stability and the universal security of all countries.”
In addition, the statement adds, “State Councillor Wang Yi noted that as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a responsible major country, China has always faithfully fulfilled its international obligations and played a constructive role in maintaining world peace and stability. When it comes to peace and security, China has the best record among major countries. We have never invaded other countries or engaged in proxy wars, nor have we ever sought spheres of influence or participated in military bloc confrontations. China stays committed to the path of peaceful development and the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. We will continue to firmly oppose all hegemonies and power politics and resolutely uphold the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries, especially small and medium-sized countries.”
ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL IMPACT
While the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not on the doorstep of ASEAN or Asia as a whole, it will have negative affects on the region.
Analysts at Nomura in a recent report said that a sustained rise in oil and food prices would have adverse impacts on Asia’s economies, but with varying effects, according to the Indian-based Business Standard report of 28 February.
“Global food prices have surged as the Russia-Ukraine conflict threatens to disrupt the supply of wheat and corn. The two countries account for 29% of global wheat exports and 19% of corn exports. They also contribute 80% of the world’s sunflower oil exports. The impact on Asia in the form of higher inflation, weaker current account and fiscal balances, and a squeeze on economic growth will be felt mostly through commodities, especially food and fuel.”
According to the report: “In Thailand, CPI inflation is highly sensitive to oil prices. The cost-of-living crisis risks weakening consumption. A slow recovery in tourism adds more downside risks to Current Account Deficit.”
“The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable economies to higher energy and food prices. Nomura sees risks of a much wider current account deficit in that country, due to its high oil import dependence and
immediate pass through to consumers. And also due to the absence of subsidies.”
“However, Indonesia will be an outlier. Even though it is a net oil importer, it benefits from rising prices of palm oil, LNG and coal. The impact of higher oil prices would likely be fully offset by surging prices of non-oil commodities, resulting in a net neutral impact on the Current Account Deficit.”
As a result, “India, Thailand and Philippines stand to lose the most, while Indonesia would be a relative beneficiary, Nomura says. The negative impact on Asia is predominantly because most economies are net oil importers, and food and energy accounts for nearly half of the consumption expenditure in Emerging Market Asia.”
THREAT TO ASEAN?
Although there has been discussion of the potential threat posed by China to its neighbours, there is little or no evidence Beijing would aggressively venture out into the ASEAN region – though there has been sabre-rattling over the territory of Taiwan, which Beijing considers its own.
Reportedly, the Myanmar military junta is said to be also quite worried that China might lose patience and take things in its own hands, like the Russian leader Putin has done recently in Ukraine.
But given the recent China's earnest position clarification, it is highly unlikely that it will be entertaining such a tendency in the near future, at least in ASEAN region.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the Director for the Institute for Security and International Studies also told
The Thai Enquirer recently: “I don’t think China will go that far. China still cares about international perceptions. When it acts belligerently, it always tries to come off with international legitimacy. Not so with regard to Russia.”
It is natural that the Ukraine crisis would spark unease in South East Asia, if only because the world’s politics and economies are so intertwined today.
While the propaganda war in Russia, Ukraine and the West will thunder on, core concerns for ASEAN nations will revolve around economic and trade issues, not least the predicted rise in fuel prices.
And as for Naypyidaw, the Myanmar junta’s focus is likely to remain on their relationship with Moscow and the weapons and military supplied that will help them remain in power.
Additional reporting by AFP and VOA
