Mizzima
In the wake of Operation 1027, a joint military operation conducted by the Three Brotherhood Alliance— comprised of the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army— the state of the conflict in Myanmar has changed overnight.
The operation involved coordinated attacks on multiple towns in northern Shan State and the Sagaing region, targeting the Myanmar Army, Myanmar Police Force and pro-military militia installations. The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s operation has several aims: to safeguard civilians; assert their right to self-defense; maintain control over their territory; respond to attacks by the State Administration Council; eradicate military rule; combat widespread online gambling fraud, particularly along the China–Myanmar border.
This operation signals a pivotal time in Myanmar’s history. Vladmir Lenin once said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.” At this moment, Myanmar is going through one of these weeks.
In the attached podcast by Insight Myanmar, Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, an independent writer, analyst and researcher, and author of dozens of articles on human rights, political transitions, and issues related to civil war and the 2021 military coup, delves into the latest developments.
In this wide-ranging interview, he provides an overview of the political context in Rakhine state, detailing the history of the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD), the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), the Arakan National Party (ANP), and the Arakan Front Party (AFP). He describes the often-fraught relations that the Rakhine people have had over the years with the Burmese military, the Bamar-majority National League for Democracy (NLD), and the Rohingya minority. He also explains the origins of the powerful Arakan Army (AA) and its political affiliate, the United League of Arakan (ULA), delving into their relations with the National Unity Government (NUG), why they initially agreed to a post-coup truce with the State Administration Council (SAC), but then why they have so dramatically broken that truce to join Operation 1027.
Finally, he touches upon the Chinese response to the dramatic escalation, referencing their investment in the region, their relation to various ethnic groups, and their growing concern about the online scam centers operated by the military-aligned Border Force Guards (BGF).
In closing, Kyaw Hsan Hlaing posits that contrary to the opinions of some analysts, the AA/ULA is deeply invested not only in crushing the Burmese military, but also in establishing a strong federal democracy. He describes how the high-stakes gamble that the AA took in joining the operation is very much in line with this aim. It’s a gamble because after the coup, the Rakhine people had enjoyed relative stability amid the rest of the country’s chaos because of that truce, but now they find themselves in the military’s cross-hairs once again. Yet if they make it through the present challenges and the military is defeated, the country has a real chance to become a stable democracy, which will benefit not only the Rakhine people, but all the citizens of Myanmar.
Listen to the Insight Myanmar podcast here: https://insightmyanmar.org/complete-shows/2023/11/1/rakhine-roulette-eme...
