Mizzima

Global think tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG) today released a sobering report on the situation in Myanmar, describing the country as being “on the edge of becoming a failed state”.

Richard Horsey, ICG’s Senior Adviser on Myanmar said the situation is “much more serious than just a human rights crisis. It is also a risk that Myanmar will fall into state collapse.”

Horsey explains this means “. . . at the moment . . . economic activity has come to a halt. Markets are starting to become dysfunctional. Availability of food is decreasing, and people's ability to buy food is decreasing because of the economic crisis.”

“We have a human rights crisis, we have an economic, we have a security crisis, and we could soon also have a displacement crisis…we have a multi-pronged humanitarian emergency, and this will not go away anytime soon.”

The group acknowledges the regime is not likely to back down and change course soon, but neither is the popular uprising.

ICG anticipates much greater bloodshed, refugee flight and broader instability if armed conflict escalates in Myanmar's ethnic regions will grow in the coming months.

The organisation urged outside actors “not to recognise the regime's legitimacy and impose targeted sanctions and arms embargoes”. To this end, it stated, Asian and Western powers should work closely together, including at the UN Security Council.

“Donors should also review their aid programs to ensure they don't benefit the military regime and prepare for the possibility that a dramatic increase in assistance will be needed to shield Myanmar's people from the humanitarian fallout”, the group said.

The report urges outside actors with channels of communication with the regime – including the UN special envoy and governments in the region ­that enjoy privileged access – to preserve them and use them to express continuing opposition to the coup, condemn state violence and warn the junta of the dangers of where it will end up.

Formed in 1995 in response to the horrors of Somalia, Rwanda, and Bosnia, ICG works to bring world attention to potential conflicts before they spiral out of control.