As most of Myanmar has been in turmoil since the February 2021 coup only one place has remained peaceful, Rakhine State.

There had been fighting between the military and the Arakan Army (AA) for about two years, but it all stopped following the 2020 election.

After the February coup the military’s brutal crackdown on protestors triggered the formation of the People’s Defence Force (PDF) armed resistance movements across the country.

While largely independent, these armed resistance groups are known to be helped and encouraged by well-armed ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Karen National Union (KNU), and smaller EAOs, such as the Chin National Front (CNF) and the Karenni Army (KA) who have all been providing military training to the PDFs.

Though they have never made public statements on this subject, it is assumed that the Arakan Army (AA) is also training PDFs. It is believed that they have been training people since the middle of 2021.

There are rumours saying that the AA has stopped fighting and does not cooperate with the National Unity Government (NUG), while other rumours say they have been in political discussions with the NUG since the beginning of the year.

Some have criticised the AA for remaining silent since the military coup after being previously involved in intense fighting when the National League for Democracy (NLD) government was in power 2015 to 2020.

Given these circumstances, people have been wondering what and who the AA support and whether they will start fighting against the Myanmar military.

Military in Rakhine State

There have been tensions at Myanmar government military bases, but there have hardly been any clashes with the AA since the end of 2020. Though, there has been some fighting between the military and the AA, especially at the start of 2022 at the AA base in northern Rakhine State.

Though the AA does not control any areas or have any powerful bases it has tens of thousands of fighters in public view in northern Rakhine villages.

In an interview with Asia Times, the AA’s commander-in-chief, Tun Myat Naing stated that they have over 30,000 battle-hardened soldiers with combat experience. This claim is not possible to confirm.

However, if this is the case, this number is more than enough to fight the military, especially as, according to one of their commanders, they have more new recruits undergoing training.

Rakhine ethnic groups and the AA

The majority of AA supporters in Rakhine State are ethnic Buddhist Rakhines, followed by people from the Muslim Rohingya and Chin ethnic groups. The Rohingya tend to go with the flow of whatever is happening and have good relationships with AA. They cooperate to administer some villages with the AA and in others they try to be friendly with both the military and the AA.

The Rohingya have reportedly adopted a neutral policy as they do not want to have to rely completely on either side. Where there are AA administrations they cooperate.

It remains to be seen whether the AA political movement will make for a better understanding between the Rakhine and Rohingya communities who have had long-term grudges against each other. This split was highlighted during the 2016-17 Rakhine crisis, when crackdowns by the Myanmar military led to over 700,000 Rohingya fleeing into exile in Bangladesh – prompting a court case against the Myanmar military currently underway in The Hague.

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) carried out operations on the outskirts of Maungdaw Township at the beginning of this year, but said they are unlikely to cooperate with the AA in the future.

Politics and Administration

AA actions may have indirectly helped the Myanmar military and the current coup-makers.

The AA set up self-administered jurisdictions, and judicial and tax systems during the informal ceasefire with the military.

The AA has given training to village administrators and it controls nearly all the rural parts of northern Rakhine State, though the military junta still controls the urban areas.

The AA administrative system is not just there to serve Rakhine people, it is also for Rohingya people and the AA has also trained Rohingya administrators. They seem to be trying to lay the foundations for an ethnically harmonious society. The AA seem to be following a policy of co-existence with other ethnic groups, as their commander-in-chief, Tun Myat Naing, had called for in his interview with Asia Times.

Analysts believe the stability in Rakhine State is helpful to the military junta as they are trying to handle fighting on multiple other fronts and appear stretched. It has also suited the AA as it has allowed them to build up their political, administrative, and judiciary systems.

The aim of the AA

The commander-in-chief of the AA openly stated that the political aim of the AA is a self-administered nation or an independent country. Unlike other Bamar groups fighting against the military junta the AA is just fighting for freedom for Rakhine State while other groups claim they are fighting for a federal democracy.

Neither the military nor the armed groups fighting for democracy and federalism can be sure of the AA’s political aims. Since the coup the AA has accelerated the rate it is implementing its control over areas and it is strengthening its forces. Analysts believe that the AA will only defend itself against attacks by the military junta but will not carry out offensive operations against them.

The military junta is not happy with the way the AA has expanded since the ceasefire with them and has warned village administrators to not have contact with the AA.

On 6 January there were clashes in Maungdaw Township. There are tensions on junta military bases in the area and it is believed that because of these problems the military will not launch an offensive in the area. They also worry that such actions would result in large casualties for the military on top of the other casualties they are facing across the rest of the country.

This means that for the AA it makes more sense to not launch offensive attacks against the military and to instead restrict themselves to only fighting in self-defence when they are attacked.

It is ironic that in an era where most of Myanmar is troubled by conflict and repression, Rakhine State, a site of claimed “genocidal” violence, is at relative peace, in large part due to the AA’s strength, tactics and political stance.