Mizzima News

Cyclone Nargis lashed Burma almost four weeks ago and it is already too late for some survivors.  Some have died from lack of emergency aid. With the monsoons approaching, the United Nations' relief experts are racing against time to save the rest of the cyclone victims in the hardest hit areas of Irrawaddy delta. But until a few days ago the United Nations and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations-ASEAN were unable to convince the military in Burma to open up the country for a full fledged humanitarian rescue mission.

On May 25 the United Nations and the ASEAN launched a flash appeal to raise funds for the cyclone victims in Burma. Fifty one countries pledged sixty percent of the $200 million dollar appeal. At the same time the UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon and the secretary general of the ASEAN, Surin Pitsuwan, asked for and were promised unhindered access into the areas hit hard by Cyclone Nargis.

Since then, the Burmese military began granting visas to the United Nations emergency relief workers. But the visa applications are processed one at a time, and each worker must give two days notice before entering the delta area for a 24-hour stay. But other non-governmental organizations are finding that there has been no improvement in getting access into the delta areas as they still need permission from the government ministries and the military, and must be escorted by government personnel.

Activities of relief workers are hindered by the government's bureaucracy that requires official approval for all actions; and many other aid workers and foreign journalists are still barred from the Irrawaddy delta. So far, only 23 percent of the areas hardest hit by Cyclone Nargis has been accessed by aid workers according to the UN.

Interestingly, 10 days after the cyclone slammed into Burma, China was also hit by a devastating earthquake; and in both countries, disasters struck in areas where recent monks' unrest and government crackdowns have taken place. Even though both countries were facing criticism for attacking Buddhist monks and protesters, within days after the earthquake, China began accepting help from foreign countries. But the Burmese military refused to allow most foreign experts into the country during the first three weeks.

Burmese government's strict rule against foreign reporters has also resulted in limited press coverage of the cyclone and subsequently impoverished Burma has received much less aid pledges than China. The backlash against the Burmese governments' indifference to its people's suffering has also contributed to a much smaller than the expected international aid.

While the Burmese junta continues to rebuff the offer of essential aid from the Americans and French Navy---China has been cooperating with the United States and other countries for earthquake relief efforts. After China changed its mind and quickly began accepting foreign assistance, additional financial aid from governments and businesses firms have been flowing in and various diplomatic channels have been opened up for China.

China is also using the occasion to mend its relationship with important neighbours like Japan and Taiwan. Even China's relationship with the Tibetan leaders seems to have eased for the moment, with mutual commitment to help the earthquake victims. Like China, a tremendous window of opportunity was opened for the Burmese military to gracefully end the political quagmire in Burma through diplomatic and economic channels, after the cyclone. But the Burmese generals have not proven themselves to be equal to the task.

Even as China is trying to improve its global image in the run up to the Olympics; China National Petroleum Corporation and Korea's Daewoo International Corp are signing an agreement with the Burmese junta to explore oil and gas in Burma, in the wake of the cyclone disaster. It is estimated that Burma has at least 90 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves and 3.2 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil reserves in 19 onshore and three major offshore fields. Sean Turnell, a professor at Macquarie University in Australia and a specialist on Burma's economy has estimated that the annual income of up to 17 billion dollars from the oil and gas sale will be channeled into the pockets of the ruling junta.

But the Burmese military is still hoping for another round of UN flash appeal to raise funds for the cyclone victim on June 12, and a follow-up reconstruction aid under the aegis of nine members from the UN, ASEAN, and the Burmese junta. In the mean time official newspapers in Burma are making it clear that while financial aid packages through the government are welcome direct assistance to the cyclone victims are not. In a crueler scenario, soldiers are believed to be evicting cyclone victims from little shelters available to them.

There have been reports of roadblocks and seizing of vehicles and aid supplies heading into the delta; but in the latest reports the government may be taking action to diffuse the tension. Meanwhile the World Health Organization warns of potential outbreak of diseases among cyclone refugees still out of reach in the remote delta region.

Burma in the aftermath of cyclone is in dire straits. Since, Irrawaddy delta and seaside areas affected by the cyclone are major producers of rice, fish, and salt for the rest of Burma, the government's mishandling of the relief and recovery from the cyclone may create serious countrywide food shortages and further political unrest.  The soaring global rice and oil prices are also cutting into the budget of humanitarian agencies already on the ground, such as the Thai Burma Border Consortium, a primary provider of food for the border refugees and displaced ethnic minorities. Unless alternative funding can be found to meet the price increase, the border refugees like the cyclone victims will be going hungry soon.

Only months after the violent assault on the country's spiritual leaders, Burma's iron bowl has been cracked by unseen forces. And the cyclone has also disrupted the junta's constitutional referendum, and legitimacy of the military government still remains in doubt, in the wake of the disaster.

While the UN is still struggling with the exact number of dead and injured people after the cyclone, the military junta proceeded to claim an overwhelming 92.48 percent votes for its new constitution. Further testing the credibility of Burmese regime, the house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi, whose party won the 1990 landslide election in Burma, expired on May 24. But the military has decided to extend her house arrest by violating its own law which only allows the government to detain Aung San Suu Kyi for a maximum of five years.

Until now, the Irrawaddy delta has been Burma's lifeblood and a major stabilizing factor for the army's hold on political power. Impact from the cyclone in Burma is staggering and the movement of aid workers inside the disaster zone will no doubt have a lasting political impact on the military's iron grip on power.

Many more people will die in the aftermath of the cyclone from the government's neglect. The damage from lack of humanitarian assistance has been enormous and the repercussion against the junta will be felt long into the future. As more people in Burma and all over the world are waking up to the reality that Burma is much better off without such a ruthless regime the final days of the ruling generals will be numbered.

May Ng is from the Southern Shan State of Burma and NY Regional Director of Justice for Human Rights in Burma.