Myanmar Peace Architecture and Structures need Technical Expertise: Annual Peace and Security Review 2019-20

Myanmar Peace Architecture and Structures need Technical Expertise: Annual Peace and Security Review 2019-20
MIPS Researcher, Morgan Michaels, discusses the key trends in the conflict between the Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State. He also provided his analysis of fighting between the Tatmadaw and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in northern Shan State. Credit: MIPS/Zwe Nyan

Annual Peace and Security Review released by one of the premier think-tanks on peace and security sector, Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security (MIPS), points out the need for enhanced technical resources, expertise and the lead role for the government leadership to steer the peace process in the coming years. The report points out that gaps in the technical expertise on the government side as one of the reasons for the frozen peace process.  It identifies the critical difference from the past that the government is now in a facilitative role rather than taking a leading role in the peace process, and this needs to be changed to resume the peace process.  The need for strengthening capacities and resources at all levels of structures aimed at the peacebuilding process is recommended by MIPS in its report.  Recent steps taken by the government to augment the National Reconciliation and Peace Centre (NRPC) is a right step in that direction.

The annual peace and security review 2019, released during last week, has been supported by several donors, including the World Bank, IDRC Canada as part of its Knowledge for Democracy Initiative.  It brings out a statistical compilation of conflicts across the country that are meticulously recorded and verified through various sources.  More importantly, the narrative and analysis on the actors, their motivations and impact of conflicts on the economy, society and people are analyzed which provides a perspective on how to address conflict and take policy steps in a sustained way. The report chronicles month-wise conflicts, specific analysis related to drug trafficking, impact on civilians, security and conflict situation specific to various ethnic armed organisations, the status of the dialogue process and stakeholders perspectives. 

Such an evidence-based analysis would be helpful for the international community to use the channels of persuasion, diplomacy and development aid to support the stakeholders in the quest for peace and stability in the country. 

Conflict tracking

 An exhaustive review of peace and security situation based on systematic tracking of conflicts at the township level by MIPS revealed an increase in the clashes by 176 per cent in 2019, compared to the previous year. In 2019, the Township-based Conflict Monitoring System (TCMS) recorded 1,083 armed clashes. It also recorded 185 incidents involving mines or improvised explosive devices (IED) for a total of 1,268 armed incidents nationwide in 2019. However, there is no country-wide spread of conflict across all the states/regions on a scale. It is bound by geography and limited to specific groups. The western frontier (Rakhine) and North Eastern part –(northern Shan) accounted for escalation of conflict while areas like Kachin and South-East part of the country saw relatively few armed conflicts, reflecting de-escalation of tensions.  For example, “since June 2018, the KIA and Tatmadaw have maintained a tacit ceasefire across Kachin State. Despite periodic clashes in northern Shan State, both sides demonstrated a clear willingness to further deescalate tensions in Kachin, engage in bilateral negotiations, and cooperate in areas like Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) resettlement. Kachin State comparatively remains stable today, a trend that will likely continue into 2021”.

Thus, conflicts involving Tatmadaw and Arakan Army; and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army are the main actors in the current conflict dynamics of the country. According to MISP report  “The rise in armed conflict in 2019 was driven primarily by two conflicts: that between the Arakan Army (AA) and Tatmadaw, and that between the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Tatmadaw. Together, these conflicts accounted for 81% of all armed clashes recorded in 2019”.  

“In 2019, the Township-based Conflict Monitoring System (TCMS) recorded 1,083 armed clashes, compared to 492 in 2018. It identified 50 townships in 2019 that experienced one or more armed incidents, meaning either armed clashes or incidents involving mines or improvised explosive devices (IED)”.  It also recorded 185 incidents involving mines or improvised explosive devices (IED) for a total of 1,268 armed incidents nationwide in 2019. 

Related developments

The intrinsic link between ethnic armed conflict, it's financing, natural resource exploitation and the illicit drug trade is a well known trend over the past many decades. Conflict and military operations have resulted in reduced or drying up of routes of drug trafficking along the Rakhine coast and Tanintharyi region appears to have become a hub for trafficking of produce from Shan state.  Similarly, the month of Aug 2019 also witnessed weeks of disruption of transport and trade routes between Myanmar and China due to the offensive of TNLA. Impact of conflict on the civilian population and their economy is a matter of concern for all. 

As per MISP report, ethnic Rakhine villagers and civilians in northern Shan state have become victims of the conflict facing the risk of injury and displacement.  The zones of conflict also appear to be closer to the highways which would pose the risk of disruptions in economic activities across long stretches.  

Civilians also faced the risk of injury and death from other dangers, especially land mines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED). “MIPS recorded at least 51 civilians who were killed by armed clashes, 40 killed by mines or IEDs, 52 who were victims of targeted killings, and three who died during detention in 2019. Five more civilians were killed in other conflict-related events, such as the intentional destruction of private property”.  

By mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic put a firm halt to talks among the government, Tatmadaw, NCA signatories, and non-ceasefire groups. it has derailed the time table for the 4th Union Peace Conference and also other initiatives with the northern alliance. 

Future Prospects

There appears to be a stalemate in the peace process since late 2018 when KNU and RCSS have withdrawn from the process. The entire 2019 remained as a frozen period for peace negotiations. Informal meetings with the NCA signatories have not yielded significant results and structures meant to address issues remained in disarray during the entire year.   More recent joint implementation coordination meetings held during the early part of 2020 gave some hope but COVID-19 pandemic appears to dampen the spirit, though the government is heading towards hosting a peace conference in the coming months.  

The proposed 4th UPC, too close to elections, is also seen sceptically by the experts and rival political parties in terms of securing tangible outcomes. MIPS report identifies four critical elements that the government needs to tackle to restore the process. The obstacles have been, coordination challenges between civilian leadership and military of the government; a leading role for the government and creating a decision-making platform within the government between its military and civilian parts; strengthening capacities at the NRPC and empowering the institutional structure and creating technical resources at this level. 

The security scenario post elections and the processes need to be watched carefully as the escalation appears to continue well into 2021 in Rakhine; however, commitment to federalism by Tatmadaw provides hope for more substantive engagement with the NCA signatories in a substantial way, paving way for political dialogue.